Premier League 2012/3: Season Predictions

At the end of the day, predictions are merely guesswork. Anybody who reads Mark Lawrenson’s ‘expert’ predictions on a weekly basis on the BBC Sport website will appreciate this. Lawrenson goes head-to-head with a different celebrity or famous figure each week, predicting that week’s Premier League scores, and invariably gets beaten. The unpredictability of Premier League football is even more pronounced when making predictions for the whole season, rather than just a week’s match-ups. Perhaps most significantly, pre-season predictions can’t take into account the remaining weeks of the transfer window which, guaranteed, will have s significant impact on end of season positions. Basically, I’m not expecting these predictions to be dead-on. Instead, it’s just a fun look at the prospects of the Premier League clubs, as we stand today.

1st                   Manchester United

The signing of Robin van Persie is a massive boost for United, assuming he performs like he did last season (and not like in Euro 2012). His and Wayne Rooney’s goal-scoring form will define United’s season. Elsewhere, the team does look over-reliant on their older players like Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes who are still quality but getting on in years, and the younger players who were shown lacking at times last year. This season the latter will have to step up and take the mantle.

2nd                 Manchester City

No major changes over the summer, but Man City is a team which could, perhaps should, have won the league more comfortably than they did last year. Vincent Kompany remains one of the class acts of the league, on and off the field. It will be interesting to see how Carlos Tevez can contribute over a whole season instead of only the last few weeks.

3rd                  Chelsea

Chelsea’s positive transfer policy over the summer sees the team stacked with attacking talent. Their Champions League run last season showed they had the ability to defend; now they are a well-rounded team. Heavy reliance on Torres as it stands, but if he recreates his Liverpool form, Chelsea becomes one of the team to beat.

4th                  Arsenal

A strange summer for Arsenal, with some positive moves in the transfer window which have been out of recent character. Addition of experienced forwards like Lukas Podolski and the creative Santi Carloza will help fill the hole vacated by Robin van Persie. I have a feeling van Persie may not be missed as much as some suspect; they won’t be a one man team this year, for sure. The touted loss of Alex Song, who improved infinitely last season, would also be a major blow.

5th                  Tottenham Hotspur

The likely but as yet incomplete sale of Luka Modric to Real Madrid will come as a blow to Spurs, but tying down Emmanuel Adebayor to a permanents deal will ensure they remain a threating side foing forward. After the over-performance at the beginning of last season, it would come as a surprise if Spurs can live up to that same standard. Andre Villas-Boas comes with a lot to prove, especially after Roberto di Matteo’s remarkable turnaround at Chelsea last year.

6th                  Liverpool

Every season seems to be a transition one for Liverpool, and this one is no different. Brendan Rodgers has begun assembling a team to fit his style of play, but at the end of last season and during Euro 2012, Andy Carroll really started to show some promise and it would be a shame for him not to be given a chance. Can’t be considered a realistic title contender, but they should be pleased with sixth.

7th                  Newcastle United

Newcastle is a team lacking in superstars but with a knack of finding the quality bargain. This was best exemplified by the free transfer for Demba Ba, but even £9m Papiss Demba Cisse turned out to be a bargain for his prolific goal-scoring. Newcastle should be challenging for Europe again (though not as close to Champions League as last year). A long run in Europa League, of which the team is capable, may harm their league position.

8th                  Everton

A typical Everton summer, quiet on the singing front. Nikica Jelavic remains this team’s biggest asset, prolific scorer in the second half of last season. Everton will probably regress towards those behind them if they can’t replace the vital contributions of Tim Cahill and Jack Rodwell, while if they can hang on to Leighton Baines it will be of great benefit to both attack and defence. Expect Evrton to once again occupy the middle ground between the top teams and the rest of the league.

9th                  Norwich City

Paul Lambert’s move to Aston Villa has given Chris Hughton, cruelly robbed of his previous shot at the Premier League, another shot at the big time. It has been an unspectacular summer for Norwich, but Hughton should be a very good addition. The Canaries will once again rely on Grant Holt to lead the line, though if his goals dry up Norwich will certainly fall lower than this position. Perhaps more important than Holt is the creative midfield of Norwich, and those players will be mainly responsible for whether Holt has a second strong season in the league.

10th                       QPR

An aggressive transfer policy, with the funds to back it up, has seen QPR strengthen over the summer. The team remains an enigma, considering the signings which were made in Januray last season but failed to prevent the team requiring a last day escape from relegation. Mark Hughes now has the chance to have a strong team while also having the time to help them gel. It could all go wrong, but I suspect they will be far more competitive this year.

11th                       Sunderland

Sunderland’s fortunes rely on finding a source for goals. Stephane Sessegnon, assuming Sunderland can hang on to him, will provide the creative edge to the side. But Louis Saha, albeit a decent squad signing, is not the man to lead the line week-in and week-out. Sunderland have put a lot of effort into signing Steven Fletcher, and I feel he is the player Sunderland need, if Wolves finally give in and sell up. With decent if unspectacular players throughout the team, Sunderland are at least one striker short of being able to push on and challenge for Europe.

12th                       Fulham

In many ways, Clint Dempsey was to Fulham last season like Robin van Persie was to Arsenal. The team is built around Dempsey to a certain extent, and so if he finds himself moving on before the transfer window closes Fulham might be pushed into a relegation battle. Yet Fulham have a knack of quietly avoiding such low-table concerns, and Martin Jol is a very good manager to ensure they are safely mid-table. I rated their transfers last year, with experience like John Arne Riise and quality players like Bryan Ruiz, and the team should grow more around them this year.

13th                       Aston Villa

Paul Lambert did an excellent job at Norwich last season and comes to Villa with the job of erasing the memories of the Alex McLeish debacle. It is a big rebuilding job for Villa. If Lambert comes off then Villa will rise up the table. Gabby Agbonlahor, who did not live up to expectations last season, will be needed to step up this year. A few decent signings means Villa shouldn’t be in danger this year.

14th                       West Ham United

West Ham is a side packed with experience Premier League players, which will be a definite benefit to them this season. The likes of Mark Noble, Kevin Nolan, Carlton Cole and Robert Green will have a huge part to play in what will not be an easy season for the Hammers. Additionally, Sam Alladyce is a manager who knows his way around the league and will be an asset this year, with something to prove after his ignominious dismissal by Blackburn in 2010.

15th                       Wigan Athletic

It is a brave man who ever predicts Wigan to be relegated from the Premier League. They’ve been favoured for the drop almost every year but always pull off a great escape. Roberto Martinez is a huge asset, and he will need to inspire his players again this year for them to stay up. Victor Moses looks certain to move on, but if anybody can find the players to step up it is Martinez.

16th                       West Bromwich Albion

A bold managerial appointment in Steve Clarke could pay off spectacularly or fail. He has learnt from some of the best and most experienced managers in the league, and has Roy Hodgson’s foundations on which to build. They need to hang on to key players like the always lively Peter Odemwingie and James Morrison, in my opinion one of the Premier League’s most underrated midfielders. A key season as West Brom try to shake off the tag of a yoyo club.

17th                       Reading

A quiet summer transfer window, which this has been so far at least, is usually difficult for the newly promoted team. Reading has put a lot of faith in Pavel Pogrebnyak, who was a success at Fulham last year. He will need to come up good again if Reading is to stay safe. He did have a reputation for scoring from a high percentage of his shots last year, which will be useful for a team not likely to get a lot of chances. Brian McDermott will hope to follow the recent trend, set by Paul Lambert and Brednan Rodgers last year, of inexperienced managers excelling in the top flight.

18th                       Swansea City

Michael Laudrup has a difficult job on his hands in his first season as a Premier League manager. Swansea was a breath of fresh air last year, but teams with a free-flowing style like theirs are often found out in a second season. Losing Joe Allen is another blow, but they can rely on the goals of Danny Graham and the energetic Scott Sinclair.

19th                       Southampton

Last year, for the first time ever in the Premier League, all promoted teams survived. It could happen this year, but for Southampton to survive they need to hope that prolific goal-scorer Rickie Lambert and record signing Jay Rodriguez come off. It’s always impossible to tell if strikers will succeed in their first Premier League seasons. Pulling it off in the Championship is far different. The Saints, as it stands, are heavily reliant on their ability to score a lot of goals.

20th                       Stoke City

As a neutral observer, I got the impression that teams were finally starting to get the hang of Stoke last year. They have a very efficient game plan and stick to it, but it’s now so well known in the Premier League. I feel they might need to develop their style of play or otherwise fall by way of complacency. Another side for whom the last few weeks of the transfer window could be the difference between relegation and mid-table.